Also like the value of the Gurley MVP play.
Here are a couple:
1) Patterson over 20.5 rush/rec yards - he usually gets the ball on at least one carry and has been thrown to 3-5 times per game. Has ability to run after the catch and I think LAR loads up on Gronk which should create opportunities for both Patterson and Hogan.
2) Devlin over 3.5 rush/rec yards - may pick up a yard on a carry, but he has been catching balls out of the backfield. When he lines up in front of the running back, they hardly ever cover him as 90% of the time he goes right into the line to block. He may only have one reception, but I think this is a very low number.
3) LAR first penalty - young team, probably will have to get used to the big stage. NE has had a limited number of penalties in past SB's. A lot of juice at some books, but I have seen it at only -115 if you shop.
4) I think Burkhead and Woods will have big games so I have $$ on them for yardage (receiving for both) and each to get a TD...I also have Burkhead to get two touchdowns.
5) Every year I take the first pass for each QB to be incomplete. Have split for 3-4 years running which is plus money since you can find at least +165.
6) Have two bets...tie at half and then each team winning. Got +1600 and +1800.
7) Michel under 17.5 rush attempts...expect the Pats go give the ball to the more experienced backs and throw a lot to their on RB's rather than running into the line
8) Historically, no TB on the opening kickoff has been a winning bet
9) I think LAR could return a punt for a TD so I will be on the ST/DEF TD = yes and then also a punt return TD = yes